#HINDSIGHT BIAS DEFINITION PSYCHOLOGY HOW TO#
#HINDSIGHT BIAS DEFINITION PSYCHOLOGY FULL#
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If you feel that there is anything unusual about a particular occurrence, you should try to find out more about it. If the authorities are issuing a warning that a hurricane is expected to hit your area, you should take the necessary precautions, and even evacuate the area if necessary. If you have no idea as to what you should do in the event of, say an earthquake, you are more likely to suffer from analysis paralysis, which, in turn, will delay your actions and make you vulnerable. Being well-informed is the first step towards your goal.

#HINDSIGHT BIAS DEFINITION PSYCHOLOGY HOW TO#

On the flip side, however, they may hinder those who are doing the right thing.Īs normalcy bias prevents us from acting to protect ourselves, it is important to know how to overcome it. These 70 percent can also help in pacifying those people who freak out in such circumstances. They may not heed to warnings by the meteorological department, but seeing their neighbors and friends prepare for the impending disaster can motivate them to do the same. The good thing about a large population being affected by this state of mind is that it is easier to convince them. Of the remaining 30 percent, half the people freak out, while the remaining show presence of mind and do the right thing. There is a theory which associates normalcy bias with the evolutionary aspect, that suggests that paralysis gives an animal a better chance of survival, because predators are less likely to attack and feed on something that isn’t moving.Īn estimated 70 percent people are affected by normalcy bias. Experts attribute the problem to people’s tendency to interpret warnings in an optimistic manner, often resorting to ambiguities to justify their carelessness. Do we take it seriously? Most people don’t, and that, in turn, results in unnecessary casualties. But let’s say the government does take precautions, and issues a warning. If you’d like to get ideas that’ll make you more successful in life, join by leaving your email below.ġ The three levels of hindsight bias, proposed by Roese & Vohs (2012) in their paper that was published by the Association for Psychological Science.In the event of a natural disaster, we blame the government for not taking adequate precautions.

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This article is taken from Frontera’s free Life-Changing Concepts Newsletter.

Things that have never happened before happen all the time. So whenever you find yourself making predictions about the future, remember:

#HINDSIGHT BIAS DEFINITION PSYCHOLOGY FULL#

That’s why life is full of surprises - sometimes negative, sometimes positive. As nobody knew how this decade would start back in December 2019. Embrace the unpredictabilityĪnother way is to be aware of the unpredictability of the future. So if you made a significant career decision, you can look back, see your predictions about how things will turn out, and judge if it was the right decision. One way to avoid Hindsight Bias is to keep track of your decisions and reasoning at that time. Hindsight Bias Meaning and Examples How to avoid hindsight bias 1. That’s how people make the wrong investment decisions and don’t learn from their mistakes. That’s how executives take uncalculated risks or stick to a strategy that worked once. It creates false confidence.Īfter all, if it’s so easy to explain all past events, if we knew it all, we can also predict the future. The danger with Hindsight Bias is its impact on your future decisions. I knew it would happen (Predictability).I said it would happen (Memory Distortion).You hear these sentences that represent three levels 1 of Hindsight Bias quite often for stock market crashes, match results, or business decisions: Tensions in Eastern Europe were so high in the last couple of years everybody knew that Putin would invade Ukraine.Īfter we know how things turned out, our minds ignore all other possibilities and explain the past as it was inevitable. The world was too connected a pandemic was inevitable.

Looking back from today, everything feels obvious. Who was expecting a war in Europe resembling the days of the Second World War?īut these did happen just in 27 months since December 2019. Who was expecting a pandemic that’d keep us under lockdown and change how we live for years? Hindsight bias is a fallacy where people feel they knew how things would turn out after the events occurred.

Hindsight bias definition psychology